Live monthly U.S. heavy-truck industry indicators from FRED: vehicle sales (SAAR), manufacturers’ new orders and shipments, unfilled-order backlog, and Federal Reserve industrial production. All data sourced from BEA, Census M3, and the Federal Reserve — free, public, updated monthly.
Heavy truck sales (SAAR)
398,000
▼ 11.75% YoY
Seasonally adj. annualized rate · 2026-04-01 · BEA
Source: BEA via FRED
Seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) · millions of units · BEA via FRED (HTRUCKSSAAR)
The 398,000 annualized rate for 2026-04-01 does not mean 398,000trucks sold that month. It means the monthly pace — after removing seasonal patterns — projects to that many units if sustained for a full year. Actual units delivered in any single month are roughly one-twelfth of the SAAR figure. BEA defines “heavy weight trucks” as vehicles with GVW above 14,000 lbs (Class 5 and above), making this the closest free analog to Class 8 monthly sales. The year-over-year change is -11.8%.
Unfilled order backlog
$5.4B
▲ 30.54% YoY
1.6 months of shipments · 2026-03-01
Source: Census M3 via FRED
Manufacturers’ new orders (A33DNO) vs. value of shipments (A36CVS) · millions of dollars · Census M3 via FRED
When orders > shipments, backlog grows and lead times lengthen. When orders < shipments, OEMs are clearing inventory and open build slots emerge.
Federal Reserve Industrial Production index · NAICS 33612 · 2017 = 100 (IPG33612S)
vs. 2017 baseline
14.0% below
Heavy-truck assembly output relative to 2017 average
Source: Federal Reserve via FRED
Quarterly actual unit deliveries from SEC EDGAR filings. PACCAR (Kenworth + Peterbilt) is the only US-listed heavy-truck OEM — Daimler Truck, Volvo Group, and Traton Group are European companies that publish delivery data in their own press releases, not SEC filings.
| OEM | Brands | Q1 2026 | 2025 (same period) | YoY | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PACCAR | Kenworth, Peterbilt | 33,100 | 40,100 | -17.5% | 8-K → |
| United States and Canada | 17,800 | 22,200 | -19.8% | ||
| Europe | 11,200 | 10,400 | +7.7% | ||
The backlog-to-build (B:B) ratio — current order backlog divided by monthly OEM build rate — is the single cleanest predictor of used Class 8 truck residual values over a 12-month window. When B:B exceeds 9 months, OEMs are effectively sold out; new-truck lead times stretch to 9–12 months and used-truck residuals hold firm, which supports dealer margins on late-model trade-ins. When B:B falls below 3 months, OEMs have open build slots, new-truck pricing softens, and used-truck depreciation accelerates. The current Census M3 backlog represents 1.6 months of trailing-3-month average shipments.
Paid primary source
ACT Research →
Preliminary and final monthly net-order reports with OEM-level detail.
Paid primary source
FTR Associates →
Class 8 order outlook and freight-market index.
SAAR stands for Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate. The BEA series (HTRUCKSSAAR) takes the actual monthly unit count, removes seasonal patterns (e.g., slower December sales), and projects the result to a full-year pace. A reading of 350,000 SAAR does not mean 350,000 trucks sold that month — it means the monthly pace, if sustained for a full year and adjusted for seasonality, would total 350,000 units.
TruckRadar sources three complementary monthly series from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) platform: BEA vehicle sales (HTRUCKSSAAR), Census M3 manufacturers' new orders and shipments for NAICS 33612 (heavy duty truck manufacturing), and the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production index for heavy duty trucks. All series are free, public, and updated monthly.
OEM build slots are typically booked 4–9 months ahead. A rising Class 8 net-orders curve implies fleets expect stronger freight demand and are adding capacity; a falling curve implies balance-sheet caution and a tightening capacity environment 6–12 months out.
Backlog-to-build (B:B) is the ratio of current order backlog in months of OEM production capacity. A B:B above 9 indicates OEMs are sold out and used-truck residuals stay firm; a B:B below 3 signals open build slots and accelerating used-truck depreciation. Dealers pricing used Class 8 units watch B:B as the cleanest predictor of 12-month residuals.
Lead times swing with the cycle. In a sold-out environment (B:B > 9), new-truck buyers face 9–12 months from order to delivery. In a soft market (B:B < 3), OEMs can take an order and build it in 6–10 weeks. Fleets balance the lead-time risk against expected spot-rate conditions at the delivery window.
| Other |
| 4,100 |
| 7,500 |
| -45.3% |
| Daimler Truck | Freightliner, Western Star | Not SEC-registered — see OEM IR site | IR → | ||
| Volvo Group | Volvo, Mack | Not SEC-registered — see OEM IR site | IR → | ||
| Traton Group | International (Navistar) | Not SEC-registered — see OEM IR site | IR → | ||
Data period: Q1 2026 · Filing date: 2026-04-28 · SEC EDGAR accession 0001193125-26-183626
When new orders (A33DNO) run above shipments (A36CVS), the backlog grows and lead times lengthen — a bullish signal for new-truck pricing and used-truck residuals. When orders fall below shipments, OEMs are clearing backlog, lead times compress, and used-truck depreciation typically accelerates over the following two to three quarters.