Consumer spending drives roughly 70% of U.S. goods freight. Track the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index alongside Advance Retail Sales excluding motor vehicles & parts to read the underlying demand curve.
Sentiment YoY interpretation
Weakening
Year-over-year change band
Source: TruckRadar composite
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly survey measuring U.S. consumers' attitudes toward the economy, personal finances, and buying conditions. It is published twice a month (preliminary mid-month and final end-of-month). Readings are indexed to 1966 = 100. It is the oldest and most-cited consumer sentiment benchmark.
Motor vehicle and parts sales swing sharply with incentives, financing conditions, and fleet-replacement cycles, which can mask the underlying consumer trend. Ex-autos retail sales (FRED series RSFSXMV) is a cleaner read on the goods freight that moves through truck distribution networks: groceries, apparel, electronics, furniture, building materials, and general merchandise.
Roughly 70% of U.S. freight by value is consumer-economy goods. Rising retail sales ex-autos typically lifts dry van tonnage first, reefer tonnage second, and then LTL network volume with a short lag. Declining retail sales soften dry van spot rates first and pull inventory destocking out of warehouses, which depresses freight volume for one to two quarters.
Sentiment leads actual spending by one to three months at cycle turns. A sustained drop in sentiment typically precedes softer retail sales and a slowdown in consumer-economy freight. Conversely, a sustained rise signals follow-through spending ahead. Fleet managers use sentiment as an early warning and retail sales as confirmation.
U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment releases a preliminary reading around the 10th of each month and a final reading at month-end. Advance Retail Sales is published mid-month (around the 15th) by the Census Bureau, covering the prior month. TruckRadar.AI mirrors both through FRED.
As of 2026-02-01, U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reads 56.6, down 12.5% year over year. Advance Retail Sales excluding motor vehicles & parts runs at $599B, up 3.6% year over year. Because consumer spending drives roughly 70% of U.S. freight by value, the YoY percentage in retail sales is the single cleanest read on dry van and reefer tonnage direction. Sentiment leads actual spending by one to three months: a sustained drop warns of soft dry van freight two quarters ahead, while a sustained rise signals follow-through consumer freight. Dealers weigh consumer demand when timing used truck inventory acquisition; fleet managers factor it into driver hiring, contract bids, and equipment trade cycles.