A monthly composite view of U.S. trucking conditions, built from diesel prices (EIA), freight demand (BTS), housing activity (Census), and driver employment (BLS).
Quick summary
U.S. trucking market is currently cold. Diesel prices are $5.60/gal, freight demand is contracting, housing starts are at 1,239k units, and trucking employment is contracting.
Market temperature
Cold
Excess capacity; rates falling, pressure on carrier margins.
Market temperature is Cold. Diesel is up $1.86/gal year over year at $5.60. Freight demand is contracting. Housing starts are down 13.5% year over year. Long-distance trucking employment is down 0.9% year over year.
Diesel
$5.60/gal
+$1.86/gal YoY
Full diesel data →
Freight demand
134.9
3-mo trend: contracting
Full freight index →
Housing starts (SAAR)
1,239k
-13.5% YoY
Full housing data →
Driver employment
1,489k
-0.9% YoY long-distance
Full employment data →
Market Temperature is TruckRadar's composite score for U.S. trucking conditions, blending diesel prices (EIA), for-hire freight demand (BTS), housing starts (Census), and long-distance trucking employment (BLS). It maps to five buckets — Hot, Warm, Neutral, Cool, Cold — based on the weighted year-over-year direction of each indicator.
The composite refreshes daily via ISR; underlying indicators update on their publishing cadence (diesel weekly, freight/housing/employment monthly). Editorial commentary is refreshed monthly by TruckRadar analysts.
The BTS Freight Transportation Services Index (truck subindex) leads DAT spot-rate prints by 30–60 days. When the subindex rises for three consecutive months, dry van and reefer spot rates typically follow with a lag. Diesel is a contemporaneous input to surcharges rather than a leading indicator of contract rates.
In a Hot market, fleets should lock in contract lanes before rates climb further, accelerate equipment orders (Class 8 lead times extend to 9–12 months in tight cycles), and prioritize driver retention since turnover costs escalate. Dealers should anticipate firmer used-truck residuals and price accordingly.
Diesel prices come from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The Freight Transportation Services Index comes from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) via the FRED mirror. Housing starts and building permits come from the U.S. Census Bureau. Trucking employment comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics. All are public primary sources.