The Association of American Railroads publishes weekly rail traffic every Wednesday. Intermodal units are the direct mode-shift signal against truckload freight; carloads cover bulk commodity cycles.
Mode-shift signal
Balanced
Intermodal YoY vs truckload
Source: TruckRadar composite
Carloads are freight cars hauling bulk commodities like coal, grain, chemicals, metals, and autos. Intermodal refers to containers and trailers moved on rail flatcars, competing directly with truckload freight on long-haul lanes. The Association of American Railroads (AAR) publishes both on a weekly cadence.
Rail intermodal is the largest modal competitor to truckload for long-haul dry-van and reefer freight between roughly 750 and 2,500 miles. Rising intermodal volume signals mode-shift from truck to rail, typically during periods of higher diesel prices, tight driver supply, or sustained truck rate premiums. Falling intermodal means truckload is winning lanes back.
AAR publishes Weekly Rail Traffic every Wednesday covering the prior week ending Saturday. FRED mirrors both carloads (RAILFRTCARLOADSD11) and intermodal (RAILFRTINTERMODALD11) within one day of the AAR release.
Weekly rail data is noisy: holiday weeks, weather events, and single-carrier outages can swing values by 5 to 10 percent. Read the 4-week or 13-week moving trend rather than any single week. Year-over-year percentages are the cleanest comparison because they normalize seasonal patterns.
Four or more consecutive weeks of year-over-year intermodal growth above 5 percent typically correlates with softer truckload spot rates on long-haul lanes within one quarter. Conversely, sustained intermodal decline pushes that freight back to trucks, tightening capacity and firming both contract and spot rates.
As of the week of 2026-01-01, U.S. rail carloads totaled 965,128, down 0.0% year over year. Intermodal units hit 1,169,849, up 3.9% year over year. Intermodal is the direct mode-shift signal against long-haul truckload on lanes of roughly 750 to 2,500 miles. Four consecutive weeks of intermodal growth above 5% year over year typically correlates with softer truckload spot rates within a quarter as freight shifts to rail. Sustained declines reverse the pattern and tighten truck capacity. Fleet managers pair these weekly prints with diesel prices and driver availability to interpret mode-shift pressure. Dealers watch it as a secondary signal for Class 8 dry-van demand on long-haul lanes.